Andalusian general election, 2016

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Current Standings
Andalus
← 2015 on 28 July 2016
Party Leader % Seats ±
LG Damien Moulin 41.3 319 +35
LLD Alexander Sarke 4.1 12 -107
ULD Anastasie Mossé 17.5 68 -18
PLJ Ahmad Tlain 0.7 0 -49
PP Jean-Luc Daviau 29.3 177 +148
PPA TBD 6.3 12 +12
APA TBD 1.2 0 0
Social Democratic and Labour Party TBD 0.0 0 0
Unionist Party TBD 0.0 0 0
Independence Party TBD 0.0 0 0
New Alliance Tim Adams 0.0 0 0
Independents and Speaker N/A 0.8 0 -20
Vacant N/A
Total N/A
This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.
Prime Minister before
Damien Moulin
LG

The 11th general election of the National Assembly of Andalus (Etruscan: 11e élection générale de l'Assemblée nationale du Andalus) are to be held on 28 July for all 588 seats in the National Assembly, the lower house of the Andalusian Parliament. There are 294 constituencies represented in the Assembly, with each constituency having two seats. The leader of the resultant government will become the Prime Minister.

Background[edit]

Elections in Andalus are usually held every four years, with the last being in 2015. The next elections were planned for 2019, but increasing public discontent with the government handling of a spiraling migrant situation and a bitter constitutional crisis, the ruling government resigned en masse, triggering a new 30-day election period, starting 27 June.

Election campaign[edit]

Leaders' debates[edit]

Issues[edit]

Several issues—some long-standing (notably social inequality, discrimination against Beidars and migrant communities, the gun registry, regionalism and Tiberian sovereigntism)—took the fore in debate among the parties and also influenced aspects of the parties’ electoral platforms.

Migrant crisis[edit]

Initial polling showed that immigration was the largest issue for Andalusian voters (with 31% of responses), with attitudes largely shifting in favor of stricter limits on migrant numbers. The National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies found that 38% of Andalusians had a positive opinion of immigration to Andalus, while 45% responded the opposite.

In 2015 alone, Andalus accepted over 1.2 million new migrants, a number more than double that of the previous year. Four states (Tiberias, Sousse, Deira, and Nasser) received around two-thirds of Andalusia's immigration influx in 2015. Initial promises to contain the influx were rapidly abandoned, and Andalus's resettlement program collapsed. Attempts to relocate the swelling migrant numbers outside of Andalus were blocked by the Columbian Union and the EAS, causing widespread deportations and backlash. On 21 May 2016, Prime Minister Moulin publicly announced the Andalus could no longer guarantee proper accommodation for migrants, and referred to the situation as a "crisis", a first for an Andalusian official, and he announced an indefinite suspension of the DREAM Act.

Immigration proved to be a touchy subject during the campaign, with the Left maintaining the position that it was Andalus's moral obligation to accept and assist as many migrants as possible within the given system, while requiring complete assimilation into Andalusian culture. The People's Party adopted a hard-line position against immigration, calling for a 6-month ban on people entering the country, and the revoking of residency papers for any person that had arrived in Andalus within the last 12 months.

Separatism[edit]

Widespread public dissatisfaction with the dysfunctional union between Sousse, Tiberias, and Abbasid, and the inability to reconcile the national and regional parliaments led to sharp rises in pro-regionalist movements. PM Moulin pledged to ignore any referendum results, labeling them as illegal under the Andalusian constitution. However, Prime Minister Daivau of Tiberias, buoyed by high public support, pushed forward with his referendum of Tiberias' exit from the Andalusian union, or Tibexit, leading to increased tensions between Tiberias and the national government over their constitutional interpretations.

Fear and speculation on the outcome of the referendum lead to Andalusian markets collapsing. Tiberian voters went on the vote against maintaining the union with Andalus, with fifty-four percent voting to leave. While Tiberias has voted in favor, it is unclear if a Tiberian withdrawal is possible under the constitution, which was purposely writing to remain ambiguous on the possibility of the breakup of Andalus. However, Article 7 of the constition establishes a: "...perpetual union between the tripartite states...", which is seen by those who oppose a breakup as a binding provision barring any attempts at separatism.

Opinion polling[edit]

Date Organization
LG ULD LLD PPA PP PLJ Other No Party Undecided
25 July ACNA 40.4% 18.6% 3.9% 12.6% 25.5% - - - -
23 July Addiyar 36.2% 17.8% 3.7% 12.8% 29.5% - - - -
20 July Cazi 33.7% 19.0% 4.2% 12.8% 30.3% - - - -
19 July Le National 30.1% 17.2% 1.6% 12.4% 31.7% 1.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0%
14 July ABC 40.7% 17.2% 1.6% 12.4% 22.5% 1.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0%
12 July Jacobus 35.2% 15.8% 6.1% 11.0% 25.7% 0.7% 2.1% 1.1% 1.3%
Supreme Court Ruling: Supreme Court votes 7-4, finding Jean-Luc Daviau and his People's Party in violation of Andalus's blanket "anti-fascist" provision
Nuit Debout: Prime Minister Moulin joins millions in public protests against escalating far-right violence.
10 July Addiyar 31.7% 18.2% 3.1% 13.1% 31.7% 0.0% 2.1% 0.1% 0.2%
9 July Jacobus 32.7% 16.4% 4.1% 13.1% 28.4% 0.0% 2.1% 0.1% 0.2%
8 July ACNA 33.3% 16.4% 4.1% 11.8% 32.1% 0.0% 2.1% 0.1% 0.2%
7 July Khaleeji Daily 33.7% 16.2% 4.8% 12.4% 30.1% 0.0% - 0.1% 2.7%
6 July Addiyar 31.9% 14.9% 7.1% 13.6% 32.4% 0.1% - - -
First televised debate: People's Party leader Jean-Luc Daviau pledges new referendum on Andalusian membership in the East Althenian Sphere and calls for tighter restrictions on clandestine immigration.
5 July Cazi 27.4% 15.7% 11.0% 13.2% 27.4% 2.1% 0.1% 1.0% 2.1%
4 July Le National 23.1% 23.4% 7.3% 10.7% 33.0% 1.9% 0.6% - -
Tiberian referendum: Tiberian voters reject continued union with Andalus, and instead move for formal independence with 54 percent in favor. Prime Minister Moulin calls the referendum illegal and vows to block further talks.
2 July ABC 21.4% 28.9% 6.9% 7.8% 28.3% 5.0% 1.5% 3.3% 5.9%
30 June Khaleeji Daily 19.5% 25.1% 6.6% 8.1% 29.4% 7.2% 1.4% 1.7% 1.0%
29 June Addiyar 21.2% 29.1% 6.4% 7.9% 17.6% 5.3% 1.3% 4.1% 11.3%
27 June Le National 24.3% 27.3% 6.5% 7.8% 12.4% 6.0% 6.0% 4.2% 14.0%
Election Cycle Begins

Results[edit]

Results of the election, by district






Circle frame.svg

Votes, of total, by party

  Left (41.3%)
  PP (29.3%)
  ULD (17.5%)
  PPA (6.3%)
  LLD (4.1%)
  Other (1.5%)






Circle frame.svg

MPs, of total, by party

  Left (54.0%)
  PP (30.1%)
  ULD (11.5%)
  PPA (2.0%)
  LLD (2.0%)
  Other (0.4%)

Despite most polls intially predicting a tight race between the Left and the People's Party, the Left quickly rose in the polls to secure a surprise victory, after a series or landslide victories in Southern Andalus. The incumbent government of Prime Minister Moulin regained its parliamentary majority (of 23), and was thus able to form a single party government. The Left gained 61 seats, while losing 26, all to the People's Party. The Left's victory marks the first time the governing party has increased it's share of seats after one term in power.

While the People's Party greatly increased its share of seats (Increase 148) from that of 2015, it polled well below intially expectations, where it was expected to take around 35% of the vote. The net gain of seats can mostly be attributed to the vote splitting between the Left and the Union for Democracy in competitive left-wing regions.

Both the Liberal Democrats and the Freedom and Justice Party saw their worst results in electoral history, winning 4.1 percent and 0.7 percent of the vote respectively. The Liberal Democrats rlost 107 seats, shrinking their representation to just 12 seats, and losing their postion as the third largest party in Andalus. The Freedom and Justice Party lost all 49 of its seats, a first in the party's history.

After all 650 constituencies had been declared, the results were:

Vote share
Left
  
41.3%
People's Party
  
29.3%
Union for Democracy
  
17.5%
Andalusian People's
  
6.3%
Liberal Democrats
  
4.1%
Others
  
1.5%
Parliamentary seats
Left
  
54.0%
People's Party
  
30.1%
Union for Democracy
  
11.5%
Andalusian People's
  
2.0%
Liberal Democrats
  
2.0%
Others
  
0.4%

External links[edit]